Grand Rapids Reporter

Of the 223,400 Kent County residents estimated to have caught COVID-19 since March 1, at least 99.94 percent have recovered.

That’s according to a Grand Rapids Reporter analysis of data collected and published by the State of Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services (MDHHS). 

Over 12 weeks between Mar. 1 and June 27, MDHSS reports indicate that an estimated 223,400 Kent County residents contracted COVID-19 and that 131 have died.

COVID-19 recoveries totaled 223,269, representing 99.94 percent of cases.

Kent County’s COVID recovery rate from March through June is slightly higher than typical national recovery rates from the seasonal flu.

In 2018-19, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Controls and Prevention (CDC), an estimated 35,520,883 Americans were stricken with the seasonal flu and 35,486,726 recovered from it, or a recovery rate of 99.09 percent.

The seasonal flu is more deadly than COVID-19 for children, the CDC data shows. 

In 2018-19, 477 seasonal flu deaths under age 17, or 1.4 percent of the total. Of the 131 reported COVID-19 deaths in Kent County, zero have been children or even young adults; no deaths have yet to be reported under age 30 and 87 percent have been over age 60.

In 2018, Kent County saw 4,932 total deaths from all causes. A total of 90, or 1.8%, were from influenza or pneumonia, state health records show. Heart disease (1,536 / 31%) and cancer (1,028 / 21%) are the leading causes of death in the county. As its own category, COVID-19 would rank seventh.

Kent County's 2019 population was 656,955.

“Yeah probably”

However, federal health officials say Kent County’s official COVID-19 death count of 131 is inflated by as much as 25 percent.

Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said in May that she believes the methodology for attributing COVID-19 “cause of death” incentivizes hospitals to over count.

Local health officials in Michigan concur with Birx’ assessment.

“I think a lot of clinicians are putting that condition (COVID-19) on death certificates when it might not be accurate because they died with coronavirus and not of coronavirus,” Macomb County Medical Examiner Mark Spitz told the Ann Arbor News. “Are they entirely accurate? No. Are people dying of it? Absolutely. Are people dying of other things and coronavirus is maybe getting credit? Yeah, probably.”

COVID-19 counting errors notwithstanding, evidence mounts Michigan communities have reached "herd immunity," when enough of the population has become immune to the virus from previous infection, effectively protecting those who are not immune.

According to Nobel laureate and Stanford University biophysicist Dr. Michael Levitt, "herd immunity" kicks in and viruses burn out after infection 15 to 20 percent of the population.

The estimated total COVID-19 infected and recovered-- thus immune-- in Kent County makes up an estimated 34 percent of its total 2019 population of 656,955, or twice Levitt's threshold.

COVID-19 in Kent County
Week	Estimated New Deaths	Estimated New Cases	Cumulative Estimated Deaths	Cumulative Cases	Survival Rate
March 1-7	0	400	0	400	100.000%
March 8-14	0	500	0	900	100.000%
March 15-21	1	2,050	1	2,950	99.966%
March 22-28	0	3,300	1	6,250	99.984%
March 29- Apr. 4	4	5,900	5	12,150	99.959%
Apr. 5-11	9	10,050	14	22,200	99.937%
Apr. 12-18	10	17,150	24	39,350	99.939%
Apr. 19-25	8	29,100	32	68,450	99.953%
Apr. 26-May 2	9	36,450	41	104,900	99.961%
May 3-9	4	25,600	45	130,500	99.966%
May 10-16	13	27,300	58	157,800	99.963%
May 17-23	13	20,750	71	178,550	99.960%
May 24-30	25	14,200	96	192,750	99.950%
May 31-June 6	16	8,450	112	201,200	99.944%
June 7-13	7	5,750	119	206,950	99.942%
June 14-20	9	7,650	128	214,600	99.940%
June 21-27	3	8,800	131	223,400	99.941%
Sources: State of Michigan Department of Health & Human Services